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Strategic Foresight

Our approach

Anticipating change to adapt more effectively

Foresight analysis aims to reduce surprise and strengthen the capacity to act in the face of uncertainty.

CASSINI produces forward-looking assessments based on the analysis of underlying dynamics, disruptive factors and early signals, helping decision-makers prepare for several possible outcomes rather than a single scenario.

Our work helps structure uncertainty, test hypotheses, prioritise emerging risks and identify courses of action consistent with different possible futures.

Your needs

Your needs

01

Anticipate political, security, economic, regulatory or information-related developments likely to affect a business activity, market or location

02

Understand what constitutes a long-term trend, a short-term contingency or a potential disruption

03

Gain a structured analysis to calibrate a strategy, adjust a country plan, strengthen a resilience posture or guide investment decisions

04

Test the robustness of a decision against several plausible environments through stress tests, options and key watchpoints

Our expertise

Close-up photo of a working session

A structured approach to foresight analysis

We conduct our foresight work using a structured methodology designed to transform uncertainty into plausible scenarios and concrete strategic options.

Strategic framing of key questions

We begin with the decisions you need to make and your actual exposure – sector, territory, value chain, dependencies – to define a relevant scope and a clear time horizon.

Analysis of underlying dynamics and tipping points

We identify structuring trends, critical variables, major uncertainties, and factors likely to accelerate or indeed reverse a trajectory.

Scenario building

We develop a range of plausible, coherent, and contrasting scenarios, making explicit the sequences of events and the conditions under which they may emerge.

Indicators and warning signals

We define monitoring indicators that enable detection of movement into a given scenario and allow you to adjust your posture at the right time.

Recommendations and courses of action

We translate foresight into decisions: strategic options, mitigation measures, opportunities, decision priorities, and contingency plans.

Deliverables

Woman at work holding a pen and a tablet

Scenarios and forward-looking tools

A foresight brief or report, including an executive summary, scenarios, and implications
Monitoring features for tracking developments, making comparisons, exporting data, and supporting reporting
A scenario matrix outlining conditions of emergence, possible timelines, and impacts on your business
A set of indicators and early warning signals, with an associated monitoring framework
Operational recommendations, including options, trade-offs, and contingency plans
If required, a debrief workshop or internal seminar to align decision-makers and turn scenarios into an action plan

Uses cases

Maps, data and insights to help make sense of a changing world.

Anticipating Geopolitical Risks Affecting Maritime Routes in the Red Sea
Strategic Foresight
Anticipating Geopolitical Risks Affecting Maritime Routes in the Red Sea
Following the attacks of 7 October 2023 and the extension of the conflict in the Middle East, a major maritime shipping operator engaged CASSINI to anticipate the evolution of tensions in the Red Sea and their consequences for its operations.
Prospective map of the Lake Chad region — geopolitical and climate scenarios for 2050 (Chad, Niger, Nigeria, Cameroon)
Strategic Foresight
Geopolitical Scenarios around Lake Chad by 2050
As part of the preparation for a Conference of the Parties (COP), WWF commissioned CASSINI to conduct a prospective exercise on the geopolitical evolution of the Lake Chad region by 2050, based on four possible climate trajectories.
FAQ

Frequently asked questions

Is foresight about predicting the future?
No. Our approach is not intended to predict a single future, but to structure uncertainty. We identify ongoing dynamics, critical variables, and possible tipping points to build several plausible scenarios.
How does your approach differ from a theoretical exercise?
Our method always begins with the decisions you need to make and your actual exposure. The scenarios are based on rigorous geopolitical analysis and linked to concrete implications.
How do you build your scenarios?
We identify structuring trends, select the critical variables, and develop a range of coherent, contrasting scenarios, making explicit the conditions under which they may emerge.
How do you ensure foresight does not remain theoretical?
We define a limited set of indicators linked to the critical variables to track how dynamics evolve and adjust the strategic posture when necessary.
What concrete benefits does this bring to decision-making?
Foresight helps prioritise risks and opportunities, test the robustness of strategies, and prepare contingency plans.
Let's work together

Let's discuss your context and objectives.